{ "schema_version": 1, "dataset_id": "nyc-youth-opportunity-signals", "version_id": "yo-signal-2025-9d7b50bc4793", "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:14:09.513Z", "status": "verified_descriptive_signal_feed", "comparison_year": 2025, "publication_boundary": "Aggregate public records can identify questions for research. They do not establish causation, describe the same young people across datasets, predict an individual outcome, or justify punishment.", "source_datasets": [ { "dataset_id": "nyc-youth-opportunity-foundation", "generated_at": "2026-09-03T21:40:25.244Z", "status": "verified_foundation" }, { "dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection", "generated_at": "2026-09-03T23:45:46.258Z", "status": "verified" }, { "dataset_id": "nyc-youth-system-contact", "generated_at": "2026-09-08T14:26:03.334Z", "status": "verified" }, { "dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure", "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:14:09.513Z", "status": "verified" }, { "dataset_id": "nyc-youth-protective-resources", "generated_at": "2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z", "status": "verified_directory_links" } ], "methodology": { "method": "For each geography and change measure, compare the latest shared complete reporting year with the preceding comparable period, then apply the source measure's published polarity and a disclosed minimum-change routing threshold. Economic-pressure estimates are attached as non-routing context because only one verified ACS vintage is present. The composite describes the balance of directions; it is not a significance test, causal model, or risk score.", "queue_rule": "One balanced citywide evidence brief is eligible for Advocate intake per version. Borough signals remain public context and do not independently flood the editorial queue.", "limitations": [ "Calendar-year, school-year, and graduating-class records overlap but do not describe identical populations or reporting clocks.", "A directional change can be small, affected by administrative definitions, or reversed in a later release.", "Economic context uses a 2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate and is not treated as a same-year causal input.", "No person-level records are joined, and no signal may be used to predict an individual outcome." ] }, "signals": [ { "id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context", "geography_id": "citywide", "geography_name": "New York City", "comparison_year": 2025, "direction": "greater_recorded_concern", "direction_counts": { "concern": 3, "protective": 1, "neutral": 2, "unavailable": 0 }, "interpretation": "New York City has 3 measures moving toward greater recorded concern and 1 moving in a more protective direction. Read the underlying values and reporting clocks before drawing a conclusion.", "measurements": [ { "indicator": "under18_shooting_victimization", "label": "Youth firearm victimization", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025", "prior_period": "2024", "current_value": 0.7, "prior_value": 0.67, "change": 0.03, "materiality_threshold": 0.05, "unit": "victims per 10,000 residents under 18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-opportunity-foundation" }, { "indicator": "attendance_rate", "label": "Student attendance", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 89.81, "prior_value": 89.61, "change": 0.2, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "chronic_absence_rate", "label": "Chronic absence", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "protective", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 33.3, "prior_value": 34.83, "change": -1.53, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_graduation_rate", "label": "Four-year graduation", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 81.15, "prior_value": 83.26, "change": -2.11, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_dropout_rate", "label": "Four-year cohort dropout outcome", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 5.24, "prior_value": 4.7, "change": 0.54, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "juvenile_detention_admissions", "label": "Youth detention admissions", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025 calendar year", "prior_period": "2024 calendar year", "current_value": 3.54, "prior_value": 3.24, "change": 0.3, "materiality_threshold": 0.1, "unit": "admissions per 1,000 residents ages 12–18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-system-contact" } ], "context_measurements": [ { "indicator": "child_poverty_rate", "label": "Children below the poverty threshold", "status": "verified_context", "value": 23.9, "margin_of_error": 0.4, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents under 18 whose poverty status is determined", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "renter_cost_burden_rate", "label": "Renters paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent", "status": "verified_context", "value": 52.4, "margin_of_error": 0.3, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of renter households with a computed rent-to-income ratio", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "median_household_income", "label": "Median household income", "status": "verified_context", "value": 80483, "margin_of_error": 601, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "2024 inflation-adjusted dollars", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "unemployment_rate", "label": "Civilian unemployment rate", "status": "verified_context", "value": 8, "margin_of_error": 0.1, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of the civilian labor force", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "bachelors_or_higher_rate", "label": "Adults with a bachelor's degree or higher", "status": "verified_context", "value": 41.6, "margin_of_error": 0.2, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents age 25 and older", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" } ], "boundary": "Aggregate public records can identify questions for research. They do not establish causation, describe the same young people across datasets, predict an individual outcome, or justify punishment." }, { "id": "2025-bronx-cross-system-context", "geography_id": "bronx", "geography_name": "Bronx", "comparison_year": 2025, "direction": "more_protective_direction", "direction_counts": { "concern": 2, "protective": 3, "neutral": 1, "unavailable": 0 }, "interpretation": "Bronx has 2 measures moving toward greater recorded concern and 3 moving in a more protective direction. Read the underlying values and reporting clocks before drawing a conclusion.", "measurements": [ { "indicator": "under18_shooting_victimization", "label": "Youth firearm victimization", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "protective", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025", "prior_period": "2024", "current_value": 1.35, "prior_value": 1.41, "change": -0.06, "materiality_threshold": 0.05, "unit": "victims per 10,000 residents under 18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-opportunity-foundation" }, { "indicator": "attendance_rate", "label": "Student attendance", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 88.75, "prior_value": 88.71, "change": 0.04, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "chronic_absence_rate", "label": "Chronic absence", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "protective", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 38.92, "prior_value": 39.71, "change": -0.79, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_graduation_rate", "label": "Four-year graduation", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 77.55, "prior_value": 78.39, "change": -0.84, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_dropout_rate", "label": "Four-year cohort dropout outcome", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "protective", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 6.59, "prior_value": 7.16, "change": -0.57, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "juvenile_detention_admissions", "label": "Youth detention admissions", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025 calendar year", "prior_period": "2024 calendar year", "current_value": 4.66, "prior_value": 4.15, "change": 0.51, "materiality_threshold": 0.1, "unit": "admissions per 1,000 residents ages 12–18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-system-contact" } ], "context_measurements": [ { "indicator": "child_poverty_rate", "label": "Children below the poverty threshold", "status": "verified_context", "value": 35.9, "margin_of_error": 0.9, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents under 18 whose poverty status is determined", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "renter_cost_burden_rate", "label": "Renters paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent", "status": "verified_context", "value": 60.1, "margin_of_error": 0.6, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of renter households with a computed rent-to-income ratio", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "median_household_income", "label": "Median household income", "status": "verified_context", "value": 48676, "margin_of_error": 895, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "2024 inflation-adjusted dollars", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "unemployment_rate", "label": "Civilian unemployment rate", "status": "verified_context", "value": 11.4, "margin_of_error": 0.4, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of the civilian labor force", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "bachelors_or_higher_rate", "label": "Adults with a bachelor's degree or higher", "status": "verified_context", "value": 22.4, "margin_of_error": 0.5, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents age 25 and older", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" } ], "boundary": "Aggregate public records can identify questions for research. They do not establish causation, describe the same young people across datasets, predict an individual outcome, or justify punishment." }, { "id": "2025-brooklyn-cross-system-context", "geography_id": "brooklyn", "geography_name": "Brooklyn", "comparison_year": 2025, "direction": "greater_recorded_concern", "direction_counts": { "concern": 3, "protective": 1, "neutral": 2, "unavailable": 0 }, "interpretation": "Brooklyn has 3 measures moving toward greater recorded concern and 1 moving in a more protective direction. Read the underlying values and reporting clocks before drawing a conclusion.", "measurements": [ { "indicator": "under18_shooting_victimization", "label": "Youth firearm victimization", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025", "prior_period": "2024", "current_value": 0.65, "prior_value": 0.58, "change": 0.07, "materiality_threshold": 0.05, "unit": "victims per 10,000 residents under 18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-opportunity-foundation" }, { "indicator": "attendance_rate", "label": "Student attendance", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 89.87, "prior_value": 89.78, "change": 0.09, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "chronic_absence_rate", "label": "Chronic absence", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "protective", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 32.99, "prior_value": 34.2, "change": -1.21, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_graduation_rate", "label": "Four-year graduation", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 80.78, "prior_value": 82.6, "change": -1.82, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_dropout_rate", "label": "Four-year cohort dropout outcome", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 5.1, "prior_value": 4.53, "change": 0.57, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "juvenile_detention_admissions", "label": "Youth detention admissions", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025 calendar year", "prior_period": "2024 calendar year", "current_value": 2.98, "prior_value": 3, "change": -0.02, "materiality_threshold": 0.1, "unit": "admissions per 1,000 residents ages 12–18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-system-contact" } ], "context_measurements": [ { "indicator": "child_poverty_rate", "label": "Children below the poverty threshold", "status": "verified_context", "value": 26.1, "margin_of_error": 0.6, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents under 18 whose poverty status is determined", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "renter_cost_burden_rate", "label": "Renters paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent", "status": "verified_context", "value": 50.8, "margin_of_error": 0.5, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of renter households with a computed rent-to-income ratio", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "median_household_income", "label": "Median household income", "status": "verified_context", "value": 80263, "margin_of_error": 946, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "2024 inflation-adjusted dollars", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "unemployment_rate", "label": "Civilian unemployment rate", "status": "verified_context", "value": 7.9, "margin_of_error": 0.2, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of the civilian labor force", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "bachelors_or_higher_rate", "label": "Adults with a bachelor's degree or higher", "status": "verified_context", "value": 42.1, "margin_of_error": 0.4, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents age 25 and older", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" } ], "boundary": "Aggregate public records can identify questions for research. They do not establish causation, describe the same young people across datasets, predict an individual outcome, or justify punishment." }, { "id": "2025-manhattan-cross-system-context", "geography_id": "manhattan", "geography_name": "Manhattan", "comparison_year": 2025, "direction": "greater_recorded_concern", "direction_counts": { "concern": 4, "protective": 1, "neutral": 1, "unavailable": 0 }, "interpretation": "Manhattan has 4 measures moving toward greater recorded concern and 1 moving in a more protective direction. Read the underlying values and reporting clocks before drawing a conclusion.", "measurements": [ { "indicator": "under18_shooting_victimization", "label": "Youth firearm victimization", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025", "prior_period": "2024", "current_value": 0.71, "prior_value": 0.53, "change": 0.18, "materiality_threshold": 0.05, "unit": "victims per 10,000 residents under 18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-opportunity-foundation" }, { "indicator": "attendance_rate", "label": "Student attendance", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 88.69, "prior_value": 88.25, "change": 0.44, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "chronic_absence_rate", "label": "Chronic absence", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "protective", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 35.78, "prior_value": 38.42, "change": -2.64, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_graduation_rate", "label": "Four-year graduation", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 80.71, "prior_value": 83.65, "change": -2.94, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_dropout_rate", "label": "Four-year cohort dropout outcome", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 5.77, "prior_value": 4.83, "change": 0.94, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "juvenile_detention_admissions", "label": "Youth detention admissions", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025 calendar year", "prior_period": "2024 calendar year", "current_value": 3.72, "prior_value": 3.08, "change": 0.64, "materiality_threshold": 0.1, "unit": "admissions per 1,000 residents ages 12–18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-system-contact" } ], "context_measurements": [ { "indicator": "child_poverty_rate", "label": "Children below the poverty threshold", "status": "verified_context", "value": 20.8, "margin_of_error": 1, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents under 18 whose poverty status is determined", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "renter_cost_burden_rate", "label": "Renters paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent", "status": "verified_context", "value": 48, "margin_of_error": 0.7, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of renter households with a computed rent-to-income ratio", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "median_household_income", "label": "Median household income", "status": "verified_context", "value": 103931, "margin_of_error": 1490, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "2024 inflation-adjusted dollars", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "unemployment_rate", "label": "Civilian unemployment rate", "status": "verified_context", "value": 7.6, "margin_of_error": 0.3, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of the civilian labor force", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "bachelors_or_higher_rate", "label": "Adults with a bachelor's degree or higher", "status": "verified_context", "value": 64.2, "margin_of_error": 0.7, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents age 25 and older", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" } ], "boundary": "Aggregate public records can identify questions for research. They do not establish causation, describe the same young people across datasets, predict an individual outcome, or justify punishment." }, { "id": "2025-queens-cross-system-context", "geography_id": "queens", "geography_name": "Queens", "comparison_year": 2025, "direction": "greater_recorded_concern", "direction_counts": { "concern": 3, "protective": 1, "neutral": 2, "unavailable": 0 }, "interpretation": "Queens has 3 measures moving toward greater recorded concern and 1 moving in a more protective direction. Read the underlying values and reporting clocks before drawing a conclusion.", "measurements": [ { "indicator": "under18_shooting_victimization", "label": "Youth firearm victimization", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025", "prior_period": "2024", "current_value": 0.37, "prior_value": 0.37, "change": 0, "materiality_threshold": 0.05, "unit": "victims per 10,000 residents under 18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-opportunity-foundation" }, { "indicator": "attendance_rate", "label": "Student attendance", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 90.74, "prior_value": 90.43, "change": 0.31, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "chronic_absence_rate", "label": "Chronic absence", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "protective", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 30.71, "prior_value": 32.45, "change": -1.74, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_graduation_rate", "label": "Four-year graduation", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 83.39, "prior_value": 85.95, "change": -2.56, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_dropout_rate", "label": "Four-year cohort dropout outcome", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 4.39, "prior_value": 3.4, "change": 0.99, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "juvenile_detention_admissions", "label": "Youth detention admissions", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025 calendar year", "prior_period": "2024 calendar year", "current_value": 2.78, "prior_value": 2.61, "change": 0.17, "materiality_threshold": 0.1, "unit": "admissions per 1,000 residents ages 12–18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-system-contact" } ], "context_measurements": [ { "indicator": "child_poverty_rate", "label": "Children below the poverty threshold", "status": "verified_context", "value": 15.8, "margin_of_error": 0.6, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents under 18 whose poverty status is determined", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "renter_cost_burden_rate", "label": "Renters paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent", "status": "verified_context", "value": 52.9, "margin_of_error": 0.7, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of renter households with a computed rent-to-income ratio", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "median_household_income", "label": "Median household income", "status": "verified_context", "value": 86136, "margin_of_error": 875, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "2024 inflation-adjusted dollars", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "unemployment_rate", "label": "Civilian unemployment rate", "status": "verified_context", "value": 7.2, "margin_of_error": 0.2, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of the civilian labor force", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "bachelors_or_higher_rate", "label": "Adults with a bachelor's degree or higher", "status": "verified_context", "value": 36.1, "margin_of_error": 0.4, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents age 25 and older", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" } ], "boundary": "Aggregate public records can identify questions for research. They do not establish causation, describe the same young people across datasets, predict an individual outcome, or justify punishment." }, { "id": "2025-staten-island-cross-system-context", "geography_id": "staten-island", "geography_name": "Staten Island", "comparison_year": 2025, "direction": "greater_recorded_concern", "direction_counts": { "concern": 2, "protective": 1, "neutral": 2, "unavailable": 1 }, "interpretation": "Staten Island has 2 measures moving toward greater recorded concern and 1 moving in a more protective direction. Read the underlying values and reporting clocks before drawing a conclusion.", "measurements": [ { "indicator": "under18_shooting_victimization", "label": "Youth firearm victimization", "status": "not_comparable", "direction": "unavailable" }, { "indicator": "attendance_rate", "label": "Student attendance", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 90.62, "prior_value": 90.53, "change": 0.09, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "chronic_absence_rate", "label": "Chronic absence", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "protective", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 30.18, "prior_value": 31.49, "change": -1.31, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_graduation_rate", "label": "Four-year graduation", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 84.37, "prior_value": 86.43, "change": -2.06, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_dropout_rate", "label": "Four-year cohort dropout outcome", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 4.16, "prior_value": 3.96, "change": 0.2, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "juvenile_detention_admissions", "label": "Youth detention admissions", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025 calendar year", "prior_period": "2024 calendar year", "current_value": 2.58, "prior_value": 1.96, "change": 0.62, "materiality_threshold": 0.1, "unit": "admissions per 1,000 residents ages 12–18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-system-contact" } ], "context_measurements": [ { "indicator": "child_poverty_rate", "label": "Children below the poverty threshold", "status": "verified_context", "value": 14.5, "margin_of_error": 1.1, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents under 18 whose poverty status is determined", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "renter_cost_burden_rate", "label": "Renters paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent", "status": "verified_context", "value": 56.8, "margin_of_error": 2, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of renter households with a computed rent-to-income ratio", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "median_household_income", "label": "Median household income", "status": "verified_context", "value": 98333, "margin_of_error": 2070, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "2024 inflation-adjusted dollars", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "unemployment_rate", "label": "Civilian unemployment rate", "status": "verified_context", "value": 5.6, "margin_of_error": 0.4, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of the civilian labor force", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "bachelors_or_higher_rate", "label": "Adults with a bachelor's degree or higher", "status": "verified_context", "value": 35.7, "margin_of_error": 0.9, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents age 25 and older", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" } ], "boundary": "Aggregate public records can identify questions for research. They do not establish causation, describe the same young people across datasets, predict an individual outcome, or justify punishment." } ], "protective_resources": [ { "id": "discover-dycd-compass", "category": "connection", "title": "discoverDYCD and COMPASS afterschool programs", "provider": "NYC Department of Youth and Community Development", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/dycd/services/discoverDYCD-resources.page", "phone": "1-800-246-4646", "access": "Search the official directory, then contact the listed program to confirm enrollment and capacity.", "availability_note": "Not every listed program is open for applications at every time. Confirm directly.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" }, { "id": "summer-youth-employment-program", "category": "employment", "title": "Summer Youth Employment Program (SYEP)", "provider": "NYC Department of Youth and Community Development", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/employment/programs/summer-youth-employment-program-syep", "phone": "1-800-246-4646", "access": "Check the official page for the current application window and provider assistance.", "availability_note": "SYEP is seasonal and selection or placement is not guaranteed.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" }, { "id": "nyc-parks-recreation-centers", "category": "recreation", "title": "NYC Parks recreation centers", "provider": "NYC Department of Parks and Recreation", "url": "https://www.nycgovparks.org/facilities/recreationcenters", "phone": "311", "access": "Use the official facility finder, then review the selected center's schedule and registration rules.", "availability_note": "Amenities, schedules, registration, and capacity vary by center.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" }, { "id": "peace-nyc-crisis-management", "category": "credible-messengers", "title": "PEACE NYC Crisis Management System", "provider": "New York City Office for the Prevention of Hate Crimes / PEACE NYC", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/peacenyc/interventions/crisis-management.page", "phone": "311", "access": "Review the official intervention page and its community-partner information to identify the appropriate local contact.", "availability_note": "This is not a universal walk-in directory; local service coverage and referral routes must be confirmed.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" }, { "id": "nyc-988", "category": "mental-health", "title": "NYC 988 mental-health and substance-use support", "provider": "NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/988.page", "phone": "988", "access": "Call or text 988, or use the official page for online chat and service information.", "availability_note": "Call 911 when someone is in immediate danger or needs emergency medical attention.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" }, { "id": "acs-family-enrichment-centers", "category": "family-support", "title": "Family Enrichment Centers", "provider": "NYC Administration for Children's Services and community-based partners", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/acs/about/fec.page", "phone": "212-676-7667", "access": "Use the official borough listings and citywide directory to confirm a center's location, hours, and current public status.", "availability_note": "Some listed centers may still be developing their space or operating from a temporary site.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" } ], "story_leads": [ { "id": "yo-signal-2025-9d7b50bc4793-citywide-brief", "signal_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context", "dataset_version": "yo-signal-2025-9d7b50bc4793", "title": "New York City youth evidence brief: system contact and course-completion measures moved toward greater concern in 2025", "summary": "Across six verified citywide measures, 3 moved in a more concerning direction, 1 moved in a more protective direction, and 2 remained below the signal-routing threshold. The recorded detention-admission rate changed from 3.24 to 3.54 per 1,000; four-year graduation changed from 83.26% to 81.15%. The record is not one-directional: chronic absence changed from 34.83% to 33.30%. These aggregates identify a research question, not a cause or an individual trajectory.", "publisher": "Beyond the Curve Youth Opportunity Evidence Desk", "url_path": "/advocate/youth-opportunity/", "published_at": "2026-09-11", "source_type": "research", "discovered_from": "youth_opportunity_signal", "jurisdiction": "New York", "topic_lenses": [ "youth development", "meaningful opportunity", "sentencing context", "institutional accountability" ], "recommended_article_angle": "Investigate what the mixed 2025 record says about opportunity, school connection, and system exposure without treating aggregate association as causation or destiny.", "queue_eligible": true, "evidence_signal": { "id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context", "geography_id": "citywide", "geography_name": "New York City", "comparison_year": 2025, "direction": "greater_recorded_concern", "direction_counts": { "concern": 3, "protective": 1, "neutral": 2, "unavailable": 0 }, "interpretation": "New York City has 3 measures moving toward greater recorded concern and 1 moving in a more protective direction. Read the underlying values and reporting clocks before drawing a conclusion.", "measurements": [ { "indicator": "under18_shooting_victimization", "label": "Youth firearm victimization", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025", "prior_period": "2024", "current_value": 0.7, "prior_value": 0.67, "change": 0.03, "materiality_threshold": 0.05, "unit": "victims per 10,000 residents under 18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-opportunity-foundation" }, { "indicator": "attendance_rate", "label": "Student attendance", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 89.81, "prior_value": 89.61, "change": 0.2, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "chronic_absence_rate", "label": "Chronic absence", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "protective", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 33.3, "prior_value": 34.83, "change": -1.53, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_graduation_rate", "label": "Four-year graduation", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 81.15, "prior_value": 83.26, "change": -2.11, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_dropout_rate", "label": "Four-year cohort dropout outcome", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 5.24, "prior_value": 4.7, "change": 0.54, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "juvenile_detention_admissions", "label": "Youth detention admissions", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025 calendar year", "prior_period": "2024 calendar year", "current_value": 3.54, "prior_value": 3.24, "change": 0.3, "materiality_threshold": 0.1, "unit": "admissions per 1,000 residents ages 12–18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-system-contact" } ], "context_measurements": [ { "indicator": "child_poverty_rate", "label": "Children below the poverty threshold", "status": "verified_context", "value": 23.9, "margin_of_error": 0.4, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents under 18 whose poverty status is determined", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "renter_cost_burden_rate", "label": "Renters paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent", "status": "verified_context", "value": 52.4, "margin_of_error": 0.3, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of renter households with a computed rent-to-income ratio", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "median_household_income", "label": "Median household income", "status": "verified_context", "value": 80483, "margin_of_error": 601, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "2024 inflation-adjusted dollars", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "unemployment_rate", "label": "Civilian unemployment rate", "status": "verified_context", "value": 8, "margin_of_error": 0.1, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of the civilian labor force", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "bachelors_or_higher_rate", "label": "Adults with a bachelor's degree or higher", "status": "verified_context", "value": 41.6, "margin_of_error": 0.2, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents age 25 and older", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" } ], "boundary": "Aggregate public records can identify questions for research. They do not establish causation, describe the same young people across datasets, predict an individual outcome, or justify punishment." }, "supporting_sources": [ { "title": "Shootings (2006–Present)", "publisher": "New York City Police Department", "url": "https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Public-Safety/Shootings-2006-Present-/5ucz-vwe8", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Incident date and borough" }, { "title": "Shooting Victims (2006–Present)", "publisher": "New York City Police Department", "url": "https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Public-Safety/Shooting-Victims-2006-Present-/pztn-9bne", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Victim age category and fatality flag" }, { "title": "American Community Survey five-year estimates", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau data via Census Reporter", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/data.html", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "2024 borough population under age 18 used as the common rate denominator" }, { "title": "Borough Boundaries (water areas included)", "publisher": "New York City Department of City Planning", "url": "https://data.cityofnewyork.us/City-Government/Borough-Boundaries-water-areas-included-/wh2p-dxnf", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Map geometry" }, { "title": "End-of-Year Attendance and Chronic Absenteeism — Borough Results, 2018-19 through 2024-25", "publisher": "New York City Public Schools", "url": "https://infohub.nyced.org/reports/students-and-schools/school-quality/information-and-data-overview/end-of-year-attendance-and-chronic-absenteeism-data", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Borough all-student attendance and chronic-absence measures" }, { "title": "Graduation Results — Borough Results through the Class of 2025", "publisher": "New York City Public Schools", "url": "https://infohub.nyced.org/reports/academics/graduation-results", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Borough all-student four-year August graduation and dropout outcomes" }, { "title": "Detention Admissions by Home Borough/Community District, CY 2024", "publisher": "New York City Administration for Children's Services", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/assets/acs/pdf/data-analysis/2024/DetentionAdmissionsCY2024.pdf", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official 2024 borough, outside/unknown, and citywide counts" }, { "title": "Detention Admissions by Home Borough/Community District, CY 2025", "publisher": "New York City Administration for Children's Services", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/assets/acs/pdf/data-analysis/2025/DetentionAdmissionsCY2025.pdf", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official 2025 borough, outside/unknown, and citywide counts" }, { "title": "Annual Community District Snapshots, CY 2024", "publisher": "New York City Administration for Children's Services", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/acs/about/annual-cd-snapshots.page", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official ages 12–18 population denominator, rate definition, and confidentiality rule" }, { "title": "2024 ACS 5-Year Detailed Table B17001", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b17001.dat", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Child poverty" }, { "title": "2024 ACS 5-Year Detailed Table B25070", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b25070.dat", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Renter cost burden" }, { "title": "2024 ACS 5-Year Detailed Table B19013", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Median income" }, { "title": "2024 ACS 5-Year Detailed Table B23025", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b23025.dat", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Unemployment" }, { "title": "2024 ACS 5-Year Detailed Table B15003", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b15003.dat", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Bachelor's or higher" }, { "title": "discoverDYCD and COMPASS afterschool programs", "publisher": "NYC Department of Youth and Community Development", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/dycd/services/discoverDYCD-resources.page", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · connection" }, { "title": "Summer Youth Employment Program (SYEP)", "publisher": "NYC Department of Youth and Community Development", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/employment/programs/summer-youth-employment-program-syep", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · employment" }, { "title": "NYC Parks recreation centers", "publisher": "NYC Department of Parks and Recreation", "url": "https://www.nycgovparks.org/facilities/recreationcenters", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · recreation" }, { "title": "PEACE NYC Crisis Management System", "publisher": "New York City Office for the Prevention of Hate Crimes / PEACE NYC", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/peacenyc/interventions/crisis-management.page", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · credible-messengers" }, { "title": "NYC 988 mental-health and substance-use support", "publisher": "NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/988.page", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · mental-health" }, { "title": "Family Enrichment Centers", "publisher": "NYC Administration for Children's Services and community-based partners", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/acs/about/fec.page", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · family-support" } ], "publication_boundary": "Aggregate public records can identify questions for research. They do not establish causation, describe the same young people across datasets, predict an individual outcome, or justify punishment." } ] }