{ "schema_version": 1, "packet_id": "yo-signal-2025-9d7b50bc4793-human-research-packet", "dataset_version": "yo-signal-2025-9d7b50bc4793", "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:14:09.513Z", "status": "ready_for_human_research", "mode": "no_paid_api_required", "title": "New York City youth evidence brief: system contact and course-completion measures moved toward greater concern in 2025", "summary": "Across six verified citywide measures, 3 moved in a more concerning direction, 1 moved in a more protective direction, and 2 remained below the signal-routing threshold. The recorded detention-admission rate changed from 3.24 to 3.54 per 1,000; four-year graduation changed from 83.26% to 81.15%. The record is not one-directional: chronic absence changed from 34.83% to 33.30%. These aggregates identify a research question, not a cause or an individual trajectory.", "jurisdiction": "New York", "topic_lenses": [ "youth development", "meaningful opportunity", "sentencing context", "institutional accountability" ], "recommended_article_angle": "Investigate what the mixed 2025 record says about opportunity, school connection, and system exposure without treating aggregate association as causation or destiny.", "publication_boundary": "Aggregate public records can identify questions for research. They do not establish causation, describe the same young people across datasets, predict an individual outcome, or justify punishment.", "evidence": [ { "indicator": "under18_shooting_victimization", "label": "Youth firearm victimization", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025", "prior_period": "2024", "current_value": 0.7, "prior_value": 0.67, "change": 0.03, "materiality_threshold": 0.05, "unit": "victims per 10,000 residents under 18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-opportunity-foundation" }, { "indicator": "attendance_rate", "label": "Student attendance", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "neutral", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 89.81, "prior_value": 89.61, "change": 0.2, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "chronic_absence_rate", "label": "Chronic absence", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "protective", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2024-25 school year", "prior_period": "2023-24 school year", "current_value": 33.3, "prior_value": 34.83, "change": -1.53, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_graduation_rate", "label": "Four-year graduation", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 81.15, "prior_value": 83.26, "change": -2.11, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "four_year_august_dropout_rate", "label": "Four-year cohort dropout outcome", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "Class of 2025 · 4-year August", "prior_period": "Class of 2024 · 4-year August", "current_value": 5.24, "prior_value": 4.7, "change": 0.54, "materiality_threshold": 0.5, "unit": "percent", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection" }, { "indicator": "juvenile_detention_admissions", "label": "Youth detention admissions", "status": "verified_comparison", "direction": "concern", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "current_period": "2025 calendar year", "prior_period": "2024 calendar year", "current_value": 3.54, "prior_value": 3.24, "change": 0.3, "materiality_threshold": 0.1, "unit": "admissions per 1,000 residents ages 12–18", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-system-contact" } ], "context_evidence": [ { "indicator": "child_poverty_rate", "label": "Children below the poverty threshold", "status": "verified_context", "value": 23.9, "margin_of_error": 0.4, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents under 18 whose poverty status is determined", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "renter_cost_burden_rate", "label": "Renters paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent", "status": "verified_context", "value": 52.4, "margin_of_error": 0.3, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of renter households with a computed rent-to-income ratio", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "median_household_income", "label": "Median household income", "status": "verified_context", "value": 80483, "margin_of_error": 601, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "2024 inflation-adjusted dollars", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "unemployment_rate", "label": "Civilian unemployment rate", "status": "verified_context", "value": 8, "margin_of_error": 0.1, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of the civilian labor force", "polarity": "lower_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" }, { "indicator": "bachelors_or_higher_rate", "label": "Adults with a bachelor's degree or higher", "status": "verified_context", "value": 41.6, "margin_of_error": 0.2, "period": "2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate", "unit": "percent of residents age 25 and older", "polarity": "higher_is_better", "routing_role": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure" } ], "protective_resources": [ { "id": "discover-dycd-compass", "category": "connection", "title": "discoverDYCD and COMPASS afterschool programs", "provider": "NYC Department of Youth and Community Development", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/dycd/services/discoverDYCD-resources.page", "phone": "1-800-246-4646", "access": "Search the official directory, then contact the listed program to confirm enrollment and capacity.", "availability_note": "Not every listed program is open for applications at every time. Confirm directly.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" }, { "id": "summer-youth-employment-program", "category": "employment", "title": "Summer Youth Employment Program (SYEP)", "provider": "NYC Department of Youth and Community Development", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/employment/programs/summer-youth-employment-program-syep", "phone": "1-800-246-4646", "access": "Check the official page for the current application window and provider assistance.", "availability_note": "SYEP is seasonal and selection or placement is not guaranteed.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" }, { "id": "nyc-parks-recreation-centers", "category": "recreation", "title": "NYC Parks recreation centers", "provider": "NYC Department of Parks and Recreation", "url": "https://www.nycgovparks.org/facilities/recreationcenters", "phone": "311", "access": "Use the official facility finder, then review the selected center's schedule and registration rules.", "availability_note": "Amenities, schedules, registration, and capacity vary by center.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" }, { "id": "peace-nyc-crisis-management", "category": "credible-messengers", "title": "PEACE NYC Crisis Management System", "provider": "New York City Office for the Prevention of Hate Crimes / PEACE NYC", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/peacenyc/interventions/crisis-management.page", "phone": "311", "access": "Review the official intervention page and its community-partner information to identify the appropriate local contact.", "availability_note": "This is not a universal walk-in directory; local service coverage and referral routes must be confirmed.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" }, { "id": "nyc-988", "category": "mental-health", "title": "NYC 988 mental-health and substance-use support", "provider": "NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/988.page", "phone": "988", "access": "Call or text 988, or use the official page for online chat and service information.", "availability_note": "Call 911 when someone is in immediate danger or needs emergency medical attention.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" }, { "id": "acs-family-enrichment-centers", "category": "family-support", "title": "Family Enrichment Centers", "provider": "NYC Administration for Children's Services and community-based partners", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/acs/about/fec.page", "phone": "212-676-7667", "access": "Use the official borough listings and citywide directory to confirm a center's location, hours, and current public status.", "availability_note": "Some listed centers may still be developing their space or operating from a temporary site.", "routing_role": "possible_support_not_measured_capacity" } ], "research_questions": [ "Which policy, capacity, referral, court-processing, or reporting changes may help explain the recorded increase in detention admissions?", "Do ACS detention records distinguish admissions from unique young people, repeat admissions, detention type, or length of stay?", "What do NYC Public Schools technical notes say about the class-of-2025 graduation and dropout changes?", "Which protective attendance changes persisted across boroughs, and what public programs or policy changes overlapped with them?", "How do the ACS child-poverty, renter-burden, income, unemployment, and educational-attainment estimates sharpen the questions without being used as causal proof?", "Which listed protective-resource pathways are relevant to the reporting question, and what do current provider pages show about real capacity, eligibility, and neighborhood access?", "Do the reporting periods and populations support comparison, and where must the article keep them separate?", "What evidence would challenge the initial Beyond the Curve interpretation or provide a fair institutional counterweight?" ], "claim_checklist": [ { "claim_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context-under18_shooting_victimization", "claim": "Youth firearm victimization changed from 0.67 to 0.70 victims per 10,000 residents under 18.", "direction": "neutral", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-opportunity-foundation", "verification_status": "traceable_to_versioned_aggregate", "publication_rule": "Retain the exact population, reporting period, unit, source attribution, and non-causal boundary." }, { "claim_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context-attendance_rate", "claim": "Student attendance changed from 89.61 to 89.81 percent.", "direction": "neutral", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection", "verification_status": "traceable_to_versioned_aggregate", "publication_rule": "Retain the exact population, reporting period, unit, source attribution, and non-causal boundary." }, { "claim_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context-chronic_absence_rate", "claim": "Chronic absence changed from 34.83 to 33.30 percent.", "direction": "protective", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection", "verification_status": "traceable_to_versioned_aggregate", "publication_rule": "Retain the exact population, reporting period, unit, source attribution, and non-causal boundary." }, { "claim_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context-four_year_august_graduation_rate", "claim": "Four-year graduation changed from 83.26 to 81.15 percent.", "direction": "concern", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection", "verification_status": "traceable_to_versioned_aggregate", "publication_rule": "Retain the exact population, reporting period, unit, source attribution, and non-causal boundary." }, { "claim_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context-four_year_august_dropout_rate", "claim": "Four-year cohort dropout outcome changed from 4.70 to 5.24 percent.", "direction": "concern", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-school-connection", "verification_status": "traceable_to_versioned_aggregate", "publication_rule": "Retain the exact population, reporting period, unit, source attribution, and non-causal boundary." }, { "claim_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context-juvenile_detention_admissions", "claim": "Youth detention admissions changed from 3.24 to 3.54 admissions per 1,000 residents ages 12–18.", "direction": "concern", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-system-contact", "verification_status": "traceable_to_versioned_aggregate", "publication_rule": "Retain the exact population, reporting period, unit, source attribution, and non-causal boundary." }, { "claim_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context-child_poverty_rate-context", "claim": "Children below the poverty threshold is 23.90 percent of residents under 18 whose poverty status is determined for 2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate, with a 90% ACS margin of error of 0.40 percentage points.", "direction": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure", "verification_status": "traceable_to_versioned_aggregate", "publication_rule": "Present as an ACS estimate with its universe, period, margin of error, and non-causal boundary; do not use it to score a borough or child." }, { "claim_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context-renter_cost_burden_rate-context", "claim": "Renters paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent is 52.40 percent of renter households with a computed rent-to-income ratio for 2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate, with a 90% ACS margin of error of 0.30 percentage points.", "direction": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure", "verification_status": "traceable_to_versioned_aggregate", "publication_rule": "Present as an ACS estimate with its universe, period, margin of error, and non-causal boundary; do not use it to score a borough or child." }, { "claim_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context-median_household_income-context", "claim": "Median household income is 80483.00 2024 inflation-adjusted dollars for 2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate, with a 90% ACS margin of error of 601.00 dollars.", "direction": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure", "verification_status": "traceable_to_versioned_aggregate", "publication_rule": "Present as an ACS estimate with its universe, period, margin of error, and non-causal boundary; do not use it to score a borough or child." }, { "claim_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context-unemployment_rate-context", "claim": "Civilian unemployment rate is 8.00 percent of the civilian labor force for 2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate, with a 90% ACS margin of error of 0.10 percentage points.", "direction": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure", "verification_status": "traceable_to_versioned_aggregate", "publication_rule": "Present as an ACS estimate with its universe, period, margin of error, and non-causal boundary; do not use it to score a borough or child." }, { "claim_id": "2025-citywide-cross-system-context-bachelors_or_higher_rate-context", "claim": "Adults with a bachelor's degree or higher is 41.60 percent of residents age 25 and older for 2020–2024 ACS five-year estimate, with a 90% ACS margin of error of 0.20 percentage points.", "direction": "context_only", "source_dataset_id": "nyc-youth-economic-pressure", "verification_status": "traceable_to_versioned_aggregate", "publication_rule": "Present as an ACS estimate with its universe, period, margin of error, and non-causal boundary; do not use it to score a borough or child." } ], "source_ledger": [ { "title": "Shootings (2006–Present)", "publisher": "New York City Police Department", "url": "https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Public-Safety/Shootings-2006-Present-/5ucz-vwe8", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Incident date and borough" }, { "title": "Shooting Victims (2006–Present)", "publisher": "New York City Police Department", "url": "https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Public-Safety/Shooting-Victims-2006-Present-/pztn-9bne", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Victim age category and fatality flag" }, { "title": "American Community Survey five-year estimates", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau data via Census Reporter", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/data.html", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "2024 borough population under age 18 used as the common rate denominator" }, { "title": "Borough Boundaries (water areas included)", "publisher": "New York City Department of City Planning", "url": "https://data.cityofnewyork.us/City-Government/Borough-Boundaries-water-areas-included-/wh2p-dxnf", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Map geometry" }, { "title": "End-of-Year Attendance and Chronic Absenteeism — Borough Results, 2018-19 through 2024-25", "publisher": "New York City Public Schools", "url": "https://infohub.nyced.org/reports/students-and-schools/school-quality/information-and-data-overview/end-of-year-attendance-and-chronic-absenteeism-data", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Borough all-student attendance and chronic-absence measures" }, { "title": "Graduation Results — Borough Results through the Class of 2025", "publisher": "New York City Public Schools", "url": "https://infohub.nyced.org/reports/academics/graduation-results", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Borough all-student four-year August graduation and dropout outcomes" }, { "title": "Detention Admissions by Home Borough/Community District, CY 2024", "publisher": "New York City Administration for Children's Services", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/assets/acs/pdf/data-analysis/2024/DetentionAdmissionsCY2024.pdf", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official 2024 borough, outside/unknown, and citywide counts" }, { "title": "Detention Admissions by Home Borough/Community District, CY 2025", "publisher": "New York City Administration for Children's Services", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/assets/acs/pdf/data-analysis/2025/DetentionAdmissionsCY2025.pdf", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official 2025 borough, outside/unknown, and citywide counts" }, { "title": "Annual Community District Snapshots, CY 2024", "publisher": "New York City Administration for Children's Services", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/acs/about/annual-cd-snapshots.page", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official ages 12–18 population denominator, rate definition, and confidentiality rule" }, { "title": "2024 ACS 5-Year Detailed Table B17001", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b17001.dat", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Child poverty" }, { "title": "2024 ACS 5-Year Detailed Table B25070", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b25070.dat", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Renter cost burden" }, { "title": "2024 ACS 5-Year Detailed Table B19013", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b19013.dat", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Median income" }, { "title": "2024 ACS 5-Year Detailed Table B23025", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b23025.dat", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Unemployment" }, { "title": "2024 ACS 5-Year Detailed Table B15003", "publisher": "United States Census Bureau", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/5YRData/acsdt5y2024-b15003.dat", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Bachelor's or higher" }, { "title": "discoverDYCD and COMPASS afterschool programs", "publisher": "NYC Department of Youth and Community Development", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/dycd/services/discoverDYCD-resources.page", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · connection" }, { "title": "Summer Youth Employment Program (SYEP)", "publisher": "NYC Department of Youth and Community Development", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/employment/programs/summer-youth-employment-program-syep", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · employment" }, { "title": "NYC Parks recreation centers", "publisher": "NYC Department of Parks and Recreation", "url": "https://www.nycgovparks.org/facilities/recreationcenters", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · recreation" }, { "title": "PEACE NYC Crisis Management System", "publisher": "New York City Office for the Prevention of Hate Crimes / PEACE NYC", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/peacenyc/interventions/crisis-management.page", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · credible-messengers" }, { "title": "NYC 988 mental-health and substance-use support", "publisher": "NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/988.page", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · mental-health" }, { "title": "Family Enrichment Centers", "publisher": "NYC Administration for Children's Services and community-based partners", "url": "https://www.nyc.gov/site/acs/about/fec.page", "source_type": "official_record", "role": "Official protective-resource entry point · family-support" } ], "suggested_structure": [ { "heading": "What Happened", "instruction": "Describe the mixed citywide record with dates, units, and visible source attribution." }, { "heading": "What Beyond the Curve Sees", "instruction": "Develop the structural youth-opportunity lens without joining people across datasets." }, { "heading": "What The Official Record Says", "instruction": "Use the attached official records and add any policy or technical documentation needed for the central claim." }, { "heading": "Why It Matters", "instruction": "Explain the implications for opportunity, families, development, and institutional accountability without predicting outcomes." }, { "heading": "Where Support Exists—and Where It Does Not", "instruction": "Use the verified directory as a starting point, then confirm current access, capacity, and neighborhood gaps before publication." } ], "completion_checks": [ "At least three distinct public HTTPS sources are used.", "At least one official or primary source supports the central factual claim.", "Every numerical statement is traceable to the source ledger.", "Conflicting or protective evidence is not omitted.", "The article does not claim causation or apply borough aggregates to an individual child.", "The final article passes the existing Advocate publication gate." ] }